Demorgraphic Transition Variables and Economic Outcomes in Nigeria
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Date
2023-03-10
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNOVATION (IJRSI)
Abstract
The study examined the theory of demographic transition in the context of the Nigerian economy. This follows findings
from literature that population in its entity does not translate to economic growth, rather specific demographic partitions. Using
such demographic transition theory variables as Birth Rate, Death Rate, Female Primary School Enrollment (proxy for education)
and Mobile Cellular Subscription (proxy for technology) as explanatory variables and Gross Domestic Product (proxy for economic
growth) as dependent variable, the study adopted the econometric tools of ADF unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test and
Parsimonious ECM to treat data from World Bank indicators and Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin for a period of 30 years
(1990 – 2019). The data output confirms a positive but insignificant relationship between birth rate and economic growth.
Technology has a positive and significant relationship with economic growth while education and death rate have negative
relationship with economic growth. The study suggests amongst other things adoption and deliberate investment in technological
advancement in Nigeria, complete overhaul of the primary school system in country as this is the bedrock of education world over.
Also, adequate investment should be made in the health sector to improve the current health outcomes which have resulted in very
high death rate.
Description
This study investigates the theory of demographic transition within the Nigerian economy, based on the premise that overall population growth does not automatically translate into economic growth, but rather specific demographic factors do. Using key demographic transition variables—birth rate, death rate, female primary school enrollment (as a proxy for education), and mobile cellular subscriptions (as a proxy for technology)—the study evaluates their impact on gross domestic product (GDP), serving as a measure of economic growth.
Employing econometric tools including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, and a Parsimonious Error Correction Model (ECM), data spanning 30 years (1990–2019) sourced from World Bank indicators and the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin were analyzed. Results indicate that birth rate has a positive but insignificant relationship with economic growth. Technology exhibits a positive and significant effect on growth, while education and death rate show negative impacts.
The study recommends deliberate investment in technological innovation, comprehensive reforms in Nigeria’s primary education system as a foundation for human capital development, and strengthened healthcare investments to reduce high mortality rates and improve long-term economic performance.
Keywords
Population, Demographic transition theory, Economic Growth, Birth Rate, Technology.